Steve Rollett, Deputy CEO, Confederation of School Trusts
However, I’d like to park, for the moment, the policy debate about whether Ofsted should be inspecting and look instead at the implications of what many assume will happen from September – a return to a more ‘normal’ pattern of inspection. In particular, I’d like to flag what I think will be an important issue for policy makers, schools and Trusts to consider: the backlog of inspections.
The issue
With routine inspection paused since March 2020, Ofsted has well over a year’s worth of inspections to catch up on. We know they are doing some monitoring inspections this term but the bulk of inspections that Ofsted had intended to do over the past 18 months largely remain on the ‘to do’ list. This includes a significant number of ‘Section 8 inspections for good schools’ as well as ‘full’ Section 5 inspections (including the first inspections of some ‘new’ schools). It’s also worth remembering that the exemption for outstanding schools has been removed, so it is plausible that Ofsted will start to inspect more outstanding schools in the autumn term, if a return to routine inspection is indeed on the cards.
All of which means that Ofsted will have to do some work identifying which schools, types and categories to prioritise for inspection. It would be pretty unhelpful for me to speculate here as to what this prioritisation might look like; Ofsted’s ‘risk assessment’ algorithm was opaque enough before the pandemic and one can only imagine it will be further complicated by the pandemic, the lack of exam data and so on.
But it might be worth giving some thought to the statutory window for inspection. Let’s take a standard ‘good’ school. Many of you will be familiar with Ofsted’s window of inspecting most good schools every 4 years (you may remember Ofsted changed the window for good schools from 3 to 4 years a little while ago). What you may not know is that this is Ofsted’s own window and not what is prescribed in statute. The statutory window is 5 years from the end of the year in which the school was last inspected.
So, if we take a good school last inspected in December 2016, the end of that academic year is July of 2017 – so, although we might have anticipated Ofsted would return to that school in Autumn 2020/Spring 2021 (4 years after its inspection), statute says that Ofsted must have been back to that school within 5 years of the end of that academic year (July 2022). This effectively provides an outer limit for when a school must be inspected.
Now, the key point is that this statutory window was paused due to the pandemic (otherwise Ofsted’s inability to inspect some schools would have meant it was not complying with what’s laid down in statute – which would have been a big problem). If the statutory window is unpaused from September, that means there would be a whole bunch of schools which are either already beyond that statutory time frame or will be by the end of the year. And this is on top of the schools that Ofsted would have hoped to inspect in 2021/22 in any case in order to meet the non-statutory 4-year window Ofsted uses to schedule inspections of good schools.
I’ve focused on good schools here as these make up the bulk of schools, but as an approximation we can say that the same principle applies to schools in other categories too: there is a point by which Ofsted has to turn up!
All of which means there is a backlog in the system. I know the existence of a backlog of inspections is rather self-evident, but it’s useful to know about the statutory window because of the next part…
Extending the statutory window?
Some of you may have seen a recent tweet (now deleted) in which it was mooted that Ofsted might extend the statutory window, beyond what I outlined above, in order to give it time to catch up with the backlog of inspections. I’d like to make a few brief observations about this:
- Any extension to the statutory window is yet to be formally announced.
- In any case, this is a decision for government as Ofsted itself does not determine the statutory window (although I’m sure the government would seek Ofsted’s input).
- It would seem essential/inevitable that the statutory window is extended. It is highly unlikely that, even if ‘normal’ inspection were reintroduced in September, Ofsted would have the capacity to suddenly just catch up within the existing statutory window. There are ongoing questions about the availability of inspectors during the pandemic, as well as the possibility of further disruption to schools on the road ahead. This points, I think, towards a strong likelihood that the statutory window will need to be extended, if only for the next two or three years.
What are the implications for schools and Trusts?
All of the above is essentially a long, but I hope useful, preamble to get to this point. I think the main thing I’d like to say here is that if the statutory window is extended, as it probably should be, it has the potential to pose some challenges to leaders. Most notably, perhaps, is that it may be harder for leaders to know when to anticipate an inspection in their school(s). I’ll elaborate.
Let’s return to the example of the good school used above. This school would normally have expected an inspection in Autumn 2020/Spring 2021. With the pandemic getting in the way, this school has not been inspected. If the statutory window were not extended we know that Ofsted would have to be back by the end of the summer term 2022. But, we’re working here on the assumption that the statutory window is extended – let’s say, hypothetically, by 2 years so that it is now 7 years from the end of the year in which the school was last inspected. This would now give an outer statutory limit of summer term 2024.
Now, in some ways this might be cause for rejoice among the school; it’s potentially another few years without having to undergo an inspection, something which might feel even more welcome considering the impact and pressures associated with the current pandemic.
But, note the key word: potentially. Because, the thing is, the statutory window only gives an outer limit. In the above scenario, it is possible that the school could be inspected any time until summer 2024. This would create a very broad window of almost three years (from September 2021) in which this school could be inspected.
So, a key question is not only whether the statutory window should be extended, but also if it is, how do schools locate themselves within it?
Now, you might say that this is no different to now – schools never know for sure when to expect an inspection, and Ofsted can of course inspect under section 8 at any time if there are significant concerns. But I think the experience of most leaders is that, barring the odd surprise, they can normally predict the term in which an inspection is likely to take place. This is Ofsted’s internal window at play – e.g. the 4 years for good schools. It gives schools an approximate location on the horizon, if not a precise GPS point.
Under an extended statutory window this would need some thought, from policy makers and school and trust leaders. There is always a careful balance to be struck on the issue of knowing when an inspection is due. I’m sure Ofsted would be reluctant to be restricted too much and, as I noted above, there are challenges facing Ofsted about how it will prioritise and resource inspections. This might make the inspectorate cautious about suggesting to schools when, within an adjusted window, they might approximately expect an inspection. Ofsted might not, for example, wish to say something as simple as ‘add 18-24 months to what would have been a good school’s 4-year window’. I suspect that this might be seen as too unwieldy for scheduling and could potentially mislead schools if such an intention couldn’t be stuck to. And some people maintain that knowing exactly when an inspection is coming is counter-productive because it communicates the expectation of schools doing ‘Ofsted ready’ work.
On the other hand, some schools might justifiably say that they need something to go on beyond the outer limit of the statutory window. Although many of us would subscribe to the view that schools shouldn’t be run for the sake of inspection, and there are some schools who make a point of not talking about inspection at all, there are some who subscribe to the view that the high stakes nature of inspection means some pragmatic ‘readiness’ work is unavoidable in order to put your best foot forward when inspectors arrive.
The likelihood, I suspect, is that if the statutory window is extended, schools might well find themselves having to grapple with more uncertainty about when inspectors will arrive. I don’t say this to worry you, but rather to suggest that this could well change how schools and Trusts ‘prepare’ for inspection – or not. For example, it would be hard to maintain a ‘high alert’ status for the three years in the ’good’ school example I mentioned above. Particularly coming on the back of the pandemic, this could be exhausting for staff and leaders.
If you’re a school or Trust that doesn’t talk much about Ofsted in any case, then this might not be too much of an issue – you’ll just carry on and deal with the inspection when it happens. But if you’re a school where the familiar path of Ofsted readiness is well-trod, you might want to consider how you’ll respond to this. Perhaps you’ll try to ‘flatten the curve’ (to borrow a phrase) of any Ofsted associated work you do, so that rather than building towards a known peak (when you expect an inspection), you try to make it more manageable over the longer term.
Keeping the main thing the main thing
There is, though, one thought that I’ll end on; the EIF’s focus on the curriculum is perhaps helpful in this context. High quality curriculum work is not something that we can pull together just for inspectors as we approach an inspection in any case. It takes time to think about, debate and shape a high-quality curriculum. Given the focus on curriculum in the EIF, as well as the need to respond to the impact of the pandemic, maintaining a healthy focus on curriculum is something that should serve children well but also mean that we’re better placed for whenever inspectors do arrive.
Of course, I’ve spoken to enough leaders about inspection to know that I might be accused of sounding naive if that was taken to mean ‘if we just do curriculum then all will be fine upon inspection.’ That’s not what I’m saying. You’ll know your school(s) and know how best to move forward. I am, though, suggesting that maintaining a meaningful focus on curriculum, assessment and teaching over the long term is likely to be more productive and manageable than trying to maintain that focus on inspection over a long period. That doesn’t mean you need to ignore inspection or see it as anything other than high stakes, but as a strategic choice for leaders and Trust boards, embracing the curriculum could be one way of mitigating the potential challenges of an extended statutory inspection window.
And, of course, some of how you might respond strategically will be dictated by your school’s inspection context; might this look different in an RI or inadequate school? Perhaps. But the curriculum still seems like a good bet there too. And am I saying that all that matters is curriculum? Absolutely not. I’m not big on false dichotomies. Your children will, for example, also need you to think about their wellbeing, particularly in the context of the pandemic. And one might argue that the curriculum, including the broader enrichment offer, is central to this aim too.
Regardless of when inspectors come, developing the curriculum and looking after the wellbeing of your pupils seem self-evidently good things to focus on in the coming months. There is, after all, much more to education than inspection.
Final word
The potential changes to the statutory window explored in this blog are entirely hypothetical at this stage and intended simply to support leaders and Trust boards to consider how they might respond if it becomes harder to anticipate when an inspection might take place.
